Then → Now · 2026
Eight years into a "next 10 years" forecast of up to half the US workforce freelancing, the broad share has moved only from 36% to 38% (2023), and the EU self-employed share is lower than the post's 16.1%.
What it said (2018) ↓
"A 2017 study found that 36%, about 57.3 million people, of the United States workforce is freelance" (Upwork/Freelancers Union 2017).
"16.1% of workers in the European Union currently work in some sort of freelance capacity."
What happened (2026) ↓
The broad US measure grew slowly, not exponentially: 36% to 38% (64M) in 2023. Upwork's 2026 index, a narrower survey of skilled knowledge workers, puts their freelance share at 38%, up from 28% a year earlier.
The narrow official measure barely moved: BLS independent contractors were 7.4% of workers in July 2023. BLS
Verdict · Held up: 2 / 10 · Full 2026 update
- Freelancing would rise exponentially, with some projections expecting half the U.S. workforce to be freelance.Didn't happen it did not get much bigger
- Freelancing would diversify beyond creatives into virtual assistants and consultants.Partly true Freelancing got more professional and more diverse
Original post · 16 February 2018
Ever heard the term “gig economy”? Of course, you have. We all have. People are having a hard time with the term, however, because millions around the world are building sustainable careers freelancing. The concept of people choosing contract and remote work over the monotonous 9-to-5 office job is not new. It is, however, noticeably on the rise and projected to continue in growth around the globe. So what does the future of freelancing look like in the next 10 years? A 2017 study found that 36%, about 57.3 million people, of the United States workforce is freelance. It’s also projected that 16.1% of workers in the European Union currently work in some sort of freelance capacity. Both are expected to rise exponentially within the next few years, with some projections expecting half the U.S. workforce to be freelance.The Future Of Freelancing
What’s driving this huge shift, and what will freelancing actually look like in the next 10 years? That’s a very good question! And one that we can try to answer by looking at why there are so many current freelancers. People are beginning to realize there are more options to earn a living than working the typical 9-to-5. The freedom, flexibility, and thought of being one’s own boss draw people in. It used to be (and maybe just looking back five years) that freelancing was seen as a last resort; for those who couldn’t land a full-time job, people experiencing an employment gap or recent college grads trying to gain experience to entice larger companies to hire them. But something’s changed. People are transitioning to freelance by choice, not necessity. Work-life balance, working toward a passion and the freedom to work where you want and when are some of the largest motivators. People are turning their freelance dreams into a reality, and are being successful at doing so.Freelance Economy Growth Drivers
What are some things that will continue to drive the growth of freelancing over the next 10 years?Technology
For the future of freelancing, technology will continue to be an important tool in making work accessible for freelancers. And not just through online job boards and bidding sites. Social media – especially platforms like LinkedIn, Facebook and Twitter – is proving to become an ideal space for companies and talent to connect and build long-lasting working relationships. It’s likely that we will see a rise in tools and applications being developed specifically for freelancers to help run thriving solo-businesses.Word-of-Mouth and an Expanding Need
As more people become successful in their freelance careers, more people will see that it’s an attainable lifestyle. Until recently, it was seen as an option when other opportunities seemed scarce. Or something a person could do on occasion while still keeping a “day job.” The future of freelancing will show that opportunities become abundant. Companies and organizations find that hiring a freelancer or contractor is a savvy way to get on-demand skills needed for a certain project. They’re also keen on the idea of how much this saves their business in overhead costs. This connection between businesses looking for certain talent per project and solopreneurs will continue to evolve. Not only that, but people will see others successful and running their freelance business and think, “If they can do it, why can’t I?”. Prospective clients and opportunities will await and greet those who made the leap into an exciting freelance career.More Ways to Work
A common stereotype of freelancers is that they spend their days in pajamas working in bed or on a beach with their laptop. If that were true, there wouldn’t be millions of people around the world making a living by freelancing. Coworking will become even more significant in the future of freelancing. Coworking spaces have created ways in which freelancers and other remote workers can go to an office without “going to the office.” The popularity of co-working spaces is growing, and not just because they can help with productivity. Coworking spaces offer a sense of community, provide excellent networking opportunities and resources to remote workers and solopreneurs. These spaces will continue to open up around the world to offer freelancers a place and community to work.Diversity in People Freelancing
The field is dominated by the creatives – graphic designers, artists, web developers, and writers. Social media managers, marketing, and public relations professionals are also creating viable solo-careers for themselves. This group of freelancers is not going anywhere. In fact, as more realize they can do what they love and have the freedom of being their own boss, this group will help meet the projections of skyrocketing growth of freelancers over the next decade. Freelancing isn’t solely for creatives. People with various business and administrative backgrounds are having success as virtual assistants. Others are drawing from broad professional experiences and turning it into a freelance consultancy business. Freelancing will have a much more diverse look in the future. A variety of education, background, motivations, needs, and ambitions will shape what the new era of freelancers will look like.Freelancing in 2018
So, what will Freelancing Look Like in 2028? All research and studies indicate freelancing will continue on its path of expansive growth. I agree. And I also believe the term “gig-economy” will lose its relevance. Freelancing will continue to become a respected field, and one that flourishes in diversity of talent and opportunities.2026 update
What happened after this was written
Claims then:
- "A 2017 study found that 36%, about 57.3 million people, of the United States workforce is freelance" (Upwork/Freelancers Union 2017).
- "16.1% of workers in the European Union currently work in some sort of freelance capacity."
- Both are "expected to rise exponentially within the next few years, with some projections expecting half the U.S. workforce to be freelance."
- New tools and apps will be built for freelancers. Social media (LinkedIn, Facebook, Twitter) becomes a hiring channel.
- "Coworking will become even more significant"; spaces "will continue to open up around the world."
- Freelancing will diversify beyond creatives, into VAs and consultants.
- By 2028 "the term 'gig-economy' will lose its relevance."
What happened since:
- The broad US measure grew slowly, not exponentially: 36% to 38% (64M) in 2023. Upwork's 2026 index, a narrower survey of skilled knowledge workers, puts their freelance share at 38%, up from 28% a year earlier. Upwork 2023, Investing News on Upwork FWI 2026
- The narrow official measure barely moved: BLS independent contractors were 7.4% of workers in July 2023. BLS
- MBO reportedly counted 72.7M US independents in 2024, flat on 2023, according to search excerpts of its release (the cited page no longer loads).
- EU self-employed were 14.2% of employment in 2025, below the post's 16.1%. Eurostat
- Diversification did happen: according to excerpts of Upwork's release (the primary page could not be opened), 47% of US freelancers (about 30M) provided knowledge services in 2023. Upwork 2023
- Upwork also reports about 1 in 4 US skilled knowledge workers now work independently, earning $1.5T (release date not confirmed). Upwork
- The post did not foresee generative AI:
- After ChatGPT launched, Upwork writing jobs fell 2% and writers' earnings fell 5.2% in the short run. WashU Olin
- Demand for writing and translation jobs fell by 20–50% against the pre-ChatGPT trend (Teutloff et al., Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 2025). Oxford Internet Institute
- Secondary sources, which attribute the figure differently, say writing projects on Upwork fell 32% year on year in 2025; it could not be confirmed at a primary source. Mediabistro
- Coworking: WeWork filed for Chapter 11 on 6 Nov 2023. It shrank from 700+ locations (June 2023) to 154 in 35 countries (2024). Wikipedia
- The size of the wider flex-space market today is unverified.
Prediction scorecard:
| Prediction | Then | Now | Verdict | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freelancing rises "exponentially", toward half the US workforce | 36% (2017, broad) | 38% (2023); BLS narrow measure 7.4% | Didn't happen | Upwork, BLS |
| EU freelance share rises exponentially | 16.1% | 14.2% self-employed (2025) | Didn't happen | Eurostat |
| More tools built for freelancers | — | Plentiful, and AI is now the big one: freelancers were reportedly 2.2× more likely to use GenAI regularly (2023; not confirmed from the primary source) | Partly true | Upwork 2023 |
| Coworking becomes "even more significant" | Boom | Flex survived, but the category leader went bankrupt and shrank by about 75% | Partly true | WeWork |
| Freelancing diversifies beyond creatives | Creatives-led | 47% sell skilled knowledge services | Came true | Upwork 2023 |
| "Gig economy" term loses relevance by 2028 | — | Still standard usage, e.g. Aspen's gigeconomydata.org (a judgement call) | Didn't happen | gigeconomydata.org |
Verdict: Didn't happen on the numbers, partly true on character. Freelancing got more professional and more diverse, but it did not get much bigger. AI, not growth, became the story.
Headline finding: Eight years into a "next 10 years" forecast of up to half the US workforce freelancing, the broad share has moved only from 36% to 38% (2023), and the EU self-employed share is lower than the post's 16.1%.
Additional checks · Chrome search, 30 Sep 2026
- Upwork Future Workforce Index 2026: 38% of skilled US knowledge workers freelance, up from 28% in 2025; the 39%-of-all-workers figure appears only on secondary sites. (corrected 3 Nov 2026; Investing News)
Where these differ from the notes above, these supersede them.
Re-verified 3 November 2026: 5 claims confirmed, 5 corrected, 4 hedged, 1 removed.
Researched 30 September 2026 and re-verified against the sources on 3 November 2026. Sources are linked in each point. Items marked "unverified" could not be established and are not guessed.